Dutch worried country is unprepared for decline of world order

Dutch residents are increasingly concerned that the country is unprepared for a world order dictated by the demands of the most powerful nations, a study by the Clingendael institute has found.

The latest edition of the institute’s annual Between Hope and Fear survey found that threats to security, including cyberattacks, and a failing international order were at the top of people’s concerns.

Respondents were less concerned about economic threats, such as the rise of the so-called BRICS nations and the effect on free trade if the global economy is divided up into spheres of influence, leading to protectionist policies such as tariffs and sanctions.

The survey ranks people’s concerns based on the size of the perceived threat and the likelihood of its actually happening. Top of the list is the risk of cyberattacks on vital infrastructure, such as energy supplies, banking and drinking water, which 75% of people see as a realistic scenario.

Nearly two-thirds feared a physical attack on essential supplies or internet traffic, while similar numbers were concerned about the decline of the international order and the “worldwide rise of intolerant religious movements”.

Just over half of people were concerned that “Dutch society is not resilient in the event of an international crisis or a war,” a new entry in the top five.

“It is not surprising that Dutch people are worried about resilience, given the rapidly changing world order, which, the research shows they are aware of,” the report comments.

Tech influence

Nearly 90% said the growing influence of international tech companies such as Microsoft, Huawei and Elon Musk’s empire was likely to have an impact, but the disruption was not expected to be as great. The same was true of corporate espionage by foreign companies, rated as likely by 89.6%.

Supporters of left-wing and centre parties were most concerned about the breakdown of the global order, while on the right, more than 80% of voters for the right-wing liberal VVD and the far-right parties JA21, PVV and FVD most feared “foreign interference by migrant communities”.

“The breakdown of the international order scores relatively highly because people of all ages and genders fear it, apart from young men,” the report notes.

Defence spending

The survey also asked about people’s hopes for the coming period, with wide discrepancies between different groups of voters.

In general hopeful developments are seen as much less likely, but almost two-thirds expected strengthening the modern manufacturing industry in the Netherlands, such as chip production, to have a positive impact.

A similar number hoped measures would be taken to protect Dutch infrastructure against cyber sabotage, while three-quarters saw more investment in defence by the EU to make it less dependent on the USA as a positive step.

An end to the war in Ukraine was also rated as having a high potential impact, but fewer than half of people expected this to happen.

In general right-wing voters were more pessimistic, placing their hopes mainly on the government taking more steps to reduce immigration.

“The biggest riser is the hope that the Netherlands will focus on moderate population growth through all forms of migration (labour migration, study migration, family migration and asylum) by setting maximum levels for how many migrants can come to the Netherlands.” the report said.