People living near asylum seeker centres rate the safety in their area at an average of 6.5 out of 10 in the first year after a centre opens, recovering close to pre-opening scores of 8 or more in the years that follow, according to a research synthesis reported by broadcaster NOS on Friday.

The reporting follows successive weeks of protests and rioting against planned shelters in Loosdrecht, IJsselstein and Den Bosch, with arrests at several locations and a former council building in Loosdrecht targeted by vandals earlier this week.

The case most directly comparable to Loosdrecht is in Druten, Gelderland, where an emergency shelter for around 100 single male asylum seekers opened in April 2024. After 18 months, neighbours rated safety in their area at 6.4 out of 10.

In that period, the council logged 16 complaints, of which one concerned shoplifting, four involved misplaced parcel deliveries, and two were about noise from the centre’s emergency generator. Other complaints concerned residents riding fatbikes against traffic at night and littering. A resident who was the subject of several complaints was moved to another centre.

“You’d get disorder if you put 100 students together too,” Bureau Beke researcher Jos Kuppens told NOS.

The exceptions

The findings show Ter Apel in Groningen and Budel in Noord-Brabant are clear exceptions. Rail operator NS at one point considered skipping nearby Maarheeze station because of disorder linked to the Budel centre.

In both places the disruption is largely driven by young men from countries the Dutch government considers safe – mainly Algeria and Morocco – who have little chance of being granted residency.

However, a 2017 study by the justice ministry’s research arm WODC found no statistically significant effect of asylum centres on neighbourhood safety. Offending by centre residents – typically shoplifting and other petty theft – usually takes place inside the centre itself or in larger cities further away.

Fragile balance

Kuppens warned that public tolerance is conditional. “Another murder like that of Lisa, or an asylum seeker who stabs someone out of nowhere, and almost no one will accept a centre near them,” he told NOS, referring to the killing in August 2025 of 17-year-old Lisa from Abcoude by an asylum seeker living at a centre in Amsterdam.

Loosdrecht council reduced the planned capacity of its emergency shelter from 110 to 70 last week after several nights of rioting, and postponed opening to 6 May. A 34-year-old man from Ermelo has been arrested over vandalism at the building.