Dutch mortgage market leader Rabobank is forecasting a housing market dip in 2021 as unemployment rises and fewer people can afford to move or buy their own home.

The bank’s economists calculate that house prices will be down 0.8% in 2021 and a further 2.6% in 2022 before starting to recover later that year.

The bank said earlier it expected demand to slow in the final quarter of this year, and now says that government measures to help companies stay afloat has delayed the downturn.

So far the housing market has shown no signs of slowing down, with house prices rising 7% in July, and nearly 7% more sales.

In particular, Rabobank expects first time buyers to be hard hit by the dip. ‘Starters often have a weaker position on the jobs market and are therefore harder hit by the crisis,’ the economists said. ‘We also expect people to delay moving up the housing ladder because they have either lost their job or are worried about doing so.’

Professional investors are also likely to stay away from the market because fewer tourists, expats and foreign students are coming to the Netherlands, and this too will dampen the number of sales, the economists said.