The Rabobank is expecting the Dutch economy to grow at a slow but steady pace, according to its Economic Quarterly Report.

The first quarter started out ‘lively’, the Rabobank economists write, fuelled by the unseasonably hot weather which gave some temporary breathing space to the building industry in particular although it is not out of the woods yet. Had the climate behaved as it normally does ‘the next few quarters would probably show a slower estimated growth rate’, the report says. As it is, the Dutch BNP is expected to reach pre crisis level by the end of 2011.
The report is less sanguine about the consumer side of the cautious recuperation. Consumer confidence is still down and not expected to rise any time soon. Higher premiums, inflation and unemployment will not make people dip into their savings: ‘Dutch Calvinism will prevail’. Consumption will only rise by a ¼ percent this year and possible by ½ percent in 2012.
The Rabobank economists are giving the cabinet ‘the benefit of the doubt’ when it comes to achieving the number of cutbacks it proposes although it comments that the Rekenkamer, the country’s economic number cruncher, has already warned this year’s goals may not be achieved. Nevertheless its message to the government is ’find those millions!’
The report uses the story of the tortoise and the hare to illustrate the country’s growth. Others may grow faster but at least the Dutch will avoid the problems that come with a sudden increase in growth: price rises which will then affect labour costs blunt the country’s international competitive edge. For small open economies such as the Netherlands, slowly does it, the report concludes.