ABN Amro predicts ‘slight’ recession by end of year

Experts at ABN Amro predict a slight recession by the end of 2022, citing concerns over gas supplies and inflation.

The bank expects to see a contraction of the economy in the last quarter of 2022 and into early 2023. Even with their predicted recession, growth for 2022 should be 4.7% in 2022. They expect that number to weaken to 0.5% in 2023.

A shortage in gas in the winter, higher prices for energy and inflation will affect growth, the bank says. ‘High inflation and the associated loss of purchasing power are already leading to less consumption of goods,’ they say in their latest report about the economy.

The Netherlands is still poised to do better than the eurozone as a whole. ‘The Dutch economy is in better shape compared to the countries around us,’ the report says. Last week, GDP growth figures for the previous quarter were higher than expected.

Some banking experts are however calling for stiff rises in interest rates to stem inflation at the European Central Bank meeting next week, but others warn of the dampening effect this will have on the Dutch economy.