A British withdrawal from the EU will cost the Dutch economy €10bn in lost income by 2030, according to calculations by the government’s macro-economic think tank CPB.
The drop in trade with Britain will mount up to 1.2% of GDP within the next 15 years, the CPB said on Thursday. The impact of a Brexit on the Netherlands will be larger than in many other countries because of the close trading links.
In addition, there will be short term damage because of the lack of certainty about the form of any new trade agreements, the CPB said.
The CPB bases its calculations on a two-year withdrawal process. In the long term, the two economies will introduce import duties and differences will emerge between the demands made of products produced within the EU and Britain, the organisation forecast.
In particular, electrical equipment and car part makers, the chemicals industry and meat processors will be affected by a Brexit, the CPB said.
Earlier this year, trade insurance company Eurler Hermes said the Netherlands would lose 4.3% of its exports if Britain left the EU.
Central bank president Klaas Knot said earlier this week that Dutch firms which trade with Britain will notice the impact of a Brexit in the long term but they will not run acute financial risks.
‘They are already exposed to sterling and will remain so,’ he said. ‘And there will be no wave of British bankruptcies.’
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