The anti-Islam PVV party led by Geert Wilders would win between 17% and 19.8% of the vote if there were a general election tomorrow, according to the Peilingwijzer poll of polls.
However, the poll, which collates the results of the four main Dutch opinion polls, shows only a 0.2 percent point rise in support for the PVV since the terrorist attacks in France earlier this month.
Poll compiler Tom Louwerse told broadcaster Nos the results indicate that the impact of the increased terrorist threat and the rise of the IS is already incorporated into PVV support.
It is now becoming more difficult for Wilders to find new supporters and people who disagree with him are unlikely to have changed their minds following the recent attacks, Louwerse said.
Support for the PVV is now back at its October 2013 peak and remains well ahead of the polls’ number two, the Liberal democratic party D66, which would win up to 16.5% of the vote.
The poll of polls puts the ruling right-wing Liberal party VVD at up to 14.4% of the vote, around half its current support in parliament. This is the same as the opposition CDA. The other coalition party, the PvdA, remains below 10%.
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