Cancer diagnoses set to rise by almost a quarter by 2045

The number of new cancer diagnoses in the Netherlands is expected to rise by almost a quarter to nearly 170,000 a year by 2045, mainly because the population is growing and ageing, the national cancer centre IKNL said on Wednesday.

The number of people dying of cancer each year is also set to rise, from just over 46,000 in 2024 to just over 57,000. Some 136,000 people were diagnosed with cancer in 2024.

IKNL said in its new 20-year projections that the age-adjusted risk of getting cancer will stay mostly the same, while the risk of dying from the disease will continue falling.

The increase is driven by the growing number of older people. Five-year survival rates have improved for decades, reaching 72% for women and 69% for men, up from 55% and 42% in the early 1990s.

Skin cancer is set to become the most common form of cancer among both men and women, overtaking breast and prostate cancer. Besides ageing, the rise is mainly down to sun exposure and sunburn earlier in life, IKNL researcher Jaike Schilte-Praagman told NU.nl. People are also getting suspicious spots checked sooner, she said.

The projections do not account for new treatments, and there may be breakthroughs in the coming years. “We don’t know what treatments are still to come, so we can’t include them in our calculations,” Schilte-Praagman added.

“Without targeted measures, demand for cancer care threatens to grow faster than capacity,” IKNL board chair Ernst Kuipers told the website.

At least a third of all cancer diagnoses could be prevented through healthier lifestyles and living environments, according to cancer charity KWF.

IKNL calculated in 2024 that if no young people smoked by 2032 and the adult smoking rate fell to 5%, some 120,000 cases of lung, bladder and oesophageal cancer would be avoided by 2045.

“You can’t just tell people to live more healthily,” Schilte-Praagman said. “The government has a role to play too. It has to create an environment that makes healthy choices easier.”