Netherlands to miss gas target: What it means for households

The Netherlands will miss its target for filling its gas reserves before this winter, national gas network operator Gasunie has confirmed.

The shortfall, first reported by NU.nl, would not leave homes cold in a normal winter, Gasunie said, but it does make the country more vulnerable to an exceptionally cold spell or a sudden disruption in supply.

Dutch underground storage sites were about 45% full in late August, compared with roughly 94% at the same point in 2023 and 63% a year ago.

The government’s target, set on Gasunie’s advice, was to fill the reserves to about 80% of capacity by November 1. Levels are currently stuck near 45%, and the minimum EU target is 74%.

Is there enough gas?
For an ordinary winter, Gasunie says supply is secure. Gas continues to arrive through pipelines from Norway, through terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG), and from small Dutch fields.

The concern is what happens when several things go wrong at once: a long cold spell that also drives up demand in neighbouring countries, for example, alongside a fault at a pipeline or an LNG terminal.

“Under normal conditions I am not extremely worried about the amount of gas in storage,” energy expert René Peters of research institute TNO told broadcaster NOS. “The risk lies mainly in situations where several problems occur at the same time.”

Why are reserves low?
The main reason the reserves are low is that commercial energy firms have stored almost no gas. Summer gas prices have been higher than the expected winter price, so storing gas now to sell later does not pay off. Traders have linked the higher gas prices partly to the war around Iran.

To make up the gap, the state has stepped in. State energy company EBN is storing gas on the government’s instruction in Bergermeer, Norg and Grijpskerk, and says it is on schedule to reach its 80 TWh ceiling. Gasunie warned in June that filling was going too slowly.

The cost to households
For most households the effect will be on price rather than supply. Refilling reserves with expensive summer gas feeds through into energy costs, and households on variable or dynamic contracts tend to feel that first, which is worth bearing in mind when choosing an energy contract.

Gasunie has urged the government to create a strategic gas reserve for emergencies. One option being discussed is keeping part of the Groningen gas field – shut down in 2024 after extraction triggered hundreds of earthquakes – available purely as an emergency supply, a politically contentious idea in a region still dealing with the damage.

The cabinet is due to update parliament on the reserves, and on possible further steps, in September.