Veldhoven-based chip machinery maker ASML has raised its full-year 2026 sales forecast, telling investors on Wednesday that AI-driven orders are coming in faster than the company can fill them.

ASML now expects total net sales for 2026 to land between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from the €34–€39 billion range it issued in January. Gross margin is forecast at 51% to 53%.

First-quarter net sales came in at €8.8 billion, within company guidance, with net income of €2.8 billion and a gross margin of 53% – the top end of what ASML had projected. The company sold 67 new lithography systems in the quarter, down from 94 in the final three months of 2025.

The upgraded outlook marks a sharp shift from last summer, when chief executive Christophe Fouquet warned he could no longer guarantee growth in 2026. On Wednesday he struck a markedly more confident tone, telling investors that “demand for chips is outpacing supply” and that customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans.

Export controls in the frame

Fouquet flagged one significant caveat. The guidance range, he said, was wide enough to “accommodate potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export controls” — a reference to the continuing wrangling between Washington, The Hague and Beijing over which ASML machines can be sold into the Chinese market.

ASML has been at the centre of those talks since 2023, when the Dutch government agreed under US pressure to restrict exports of some of its advanced lithography systems to China.

The company also confirmed it will propose a total 2025 dividend of €7.50 per share, a 17% increase on the previous year. ASML bought back around €1.1 billion of its own shares in the first quarter, under the €12 billion programme it launched in January.

The strong outlook follows a turbulent few months for the company in the Netherlands. In January, ASML announced it was cutting 1,700 jobs, mainly in the Netherlands, despite booking record annual profits. In March, it secured planning approval for a new campus near Eindhoven that is expected to create some 20,000 jobs.