With less than 24 hours to go until polls open in the Dutch general election, the final two opinion polls suggest Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV is faltering while the progressive-liberal D66 has surged into the top three.

The Verian poll by EenVandaag still puts the PVV in the lead but with 29 seats, down five in the last week and four ahead of GroenLinks-PvdA, who are unchanged on 25.

• The biggest 15 political parties
• How the election system works

D66 are in third place after rising eight seats to 24, which would equal the party’s best-ever election result. The Christian Democrats (CDA) drop four seats to 19 while the right-wing liberal VVD are up one on 16. JA21 go from 12 seats to eight.

The other voter survey by Ipsos I&O puts the PVV, GL-PvdA and D66 neck and neck on 23 seats, with the CDA on 19 and the VVD on 17. JA21 are next with 11.

The changes are less dramatic, with the PVV down three seats, D66 and VVD up one and the CDA and JA21 down by one, but only three days have elapsed since the last poll.

A centrist coalition of GL-PvdA, D66, CDA and VVD – four of the five parties who formed every cabinet from 1982 until 2023 – would have 84 seats on the Verian poll and 82 according to Ipsos.

That would give it a clear majority in parliament, but VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz is strongly opposed to joining a cabinet with Frans Timmermans’ party GL-PvdA.

A centre-left combination with the Socialist party (SP) stepping in for the VVD would have 73 seats according to Verian, three short of a majority, but only 69 on Ipsos’ numbers.

Swapping JA21 for GL-PvdA would create a centre-right coalition with 70 seats according to Ipsos or 67 on Verian’s prognosis. The PVV would be around 30 seats short of a majority even if it teamed up with JA21, the farmers’ party BBB and Forum voor Democratie.

• The main issues: what the biggest six parties stand for
  Climate and the environment
  Housing
  Immigration, racism and discrimination
  Healthcare
  The cost of living

The final leaders’ debate featuring all 15 parties in parliament begins at 7pm on NPO1, with the leaders of the six main contenders in the polls taking the stage from 8.30pm in six three-way debates on housing, the economy, immigration, international conflicts, climate and leadership.