Right-wing parties have moved further to the right in the two years since the last election as the success of Geert Wilders’ PVV has prompted its rivals to take a more explicitly anti-immigration stance.

The latest analysis by the Kieskompas, the electoral analysis tool set up by Trouw newspaper and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, found that an increasing number of parties saw reducing immigration as one of the main priorities for the next government.

Six parties, including three of the four that formed the last cabinet – PVV, the liberal VVD and the farmers’ party BBB – agreed with the proposition that “the solution to the housing shortage has more to do with restricting migration than building new homes”.

Willem Blanken, director of the Kiescompas, said that four years ago only the far-right Forum voor Democratie would have supported such a statement.

The PVV and other right-wing parties have also shifted to the right on economic issues, reflecting the plans in the last government’s coalition agreement to cut spending on education, international aid and the civil service payroll.

BBB radicalised

The VVD has moved away from the centre-right towards the right on issues such as climate change and welfare as well as immigration, though it disagrees with the far-right on Europe and ethical issues.

Leader Dilan Yesilgöz, who succeeded Mark Rutte before the election, has all but ruled out a coalition with the left-wing alliance GroenLinks-PvdA next time, claiming the party has come under the influence of “radical” elements in GroenLinks on issues such as Gaza.

The most striking shift is by the farmers’ party BBB, which has gone from being a moderately conservative party with populist tendencies to a strong supporter of the PVV during the last cabinet.

Last week party leader Caroline van der Plas proposed using emergency legislative powers to put a temporary halt to asylum applications, drawing strong criticism from parties including her former coalition partners NSC.

CDA in centre

The rightward drift of VVD and BBB has created a space in the centre that the Christian Democrats (CDA) have moved into, Blanken said, which could put them in a pivotal position after the election.

Opinion polls indicate the CDA could win more than 25 seats at the election on October 29, having been reduced to a historic low of five in 2023.

The CDA has gained centrist voters who have deserted NSC, formed by the former CDA MP Pieter Omtzigt two years ago, which could lose all 20 of its seats, but BBB and VVD have also seen their polling numbers drop in the last two years.

Blanken said the right-wing parties have dominated the debate on immigration because they more or less speak with one voice while left-wing parties such as GL-PvdA, D66 and the Socialist Party (SP) are more divided.

“The right’s line is also much clearer: they put a lot of problems down to migration,” he said. “The left doesn’t have that kind of shared message, which is why those parties have had difficulty setting the agenda in the campaign.”