House prices will rise next year, overbidding is back: ABN Amro

ABN Amro economists expect house prices to rise next year and that interest rates will go down, given the latest developments in the housing market. 

“House prices have risen slightly over the past few months and are stabilising at a higher level than thought,” senior economist Bram Vendel said in an October update. “Mortgage interest rates are high, but stable, and we expect them to go down in 2024.”

The bank’s economics unit said earlier that house prices would fall 5% in 2023 but has now revised that to 3%. Next year they will rise 2.5%, rather than fall a further 3%. 

Homes with a low energy label have also dropped more in price than those that are energy efficient. “This impact will be strengthened next year when energy use will be taken into account in fixing maximum mortgages,” the report said. “That means you will be able to borrow more for a home with a good label.” 

Mortgage interest rates fixed for 10 years are now over 4% and this has led to increased demand for shorter fixed terms, the bank said. “We expect the ECB will begin lowering its rates in March next year, but buyers will have to deal with higher interest rates to start with,” the report said. 

The shortage of apartments and houses on the market also means overbidding is back, the bank said. While in December 2022, just 10% of homes sold for more than the asking price, that has now risen to 42%. 

National statistics agency CBS said on Monday that house prices in the Netherlands continued to stabilise in September, rising 0.6% in August.

Average prices have now risen for four months in a row, but are still down an average of 3.5% year on year, the CBS said.

Calculations by estate agents organisation NVM, which are based on signed deals but not completed transactions, indicated earlier this month that prices have now risen for two quarters in a row.