Dutch inflation hits 3.7%, analysts fear more after US midterms

Inflation in the Netherlands rose to 3.7% in October from 3.4% in September, mainly because of higher energy and fuel prices, which analysts fear will go higher if the Middle East conflict escalates following the US midterm election results.

Energy prices, including petrol and diesel, were 14.4% higher than a year earlier, according to the first estimate by national statistics office CBS.

It is the highest rate since April 2025, when inflation stood at 4.1%. It is also the fourth monthly rise in a row.

Analysts quoted by the Financieele Dagblad expect inflation to rise further after the Democrats’ landslide victory in Tuesday’s US midterm elections.

Thomas van Galen, chief strategist at Achmea Investment Management, told the paper he expects president Donald Trump to focus more on foreign policy, including the war in Iran. “Think of more sabre-rattling in the Middle East,” he said.

Rabobank’s base scenario has oil reaching $120 a barrel in the first half of 2027, economist Igor Dzambo told the FD. On that scenario, a litre of petrol would cost €2.64 on average in March. Rabobank expects inflation to peak at 4.6% just before summer 2027.