The incoming government’s plans to increase the retirement age risk leading to a steep rise in older manual workers living on incapacity benefits, unions and economists have warned.

The proportion of people over 60 relying on the WIA benefit, which is paid out to people who have been unable to work because of illness for at least two years, is projected to grow from a quarter to one-third in the next 35 years.

The new cabinet of D66, VVD and CDA plans to raise the retirement age in step with life expectancy, faster than under the previous system, which would mean most people in their thirties now will work until the age of 70.

The FNV and CNV unions told Trouw that people with physically demanding jobs such as builders, dock workers and hospital staff will be hit hardest by the reform.

They say delaying retirement will increase inequality by favouring people with sedentary jobs and university degrees, who already have a longer life expectancy.

“Put crudely, we are moving towards a system in which cleaners who live less long are funding the pensions of university lecturers and actuaries with a longer life expectancy,” FNV chairman Dick Koerselman said.

More incapacity claims

Figures from the state unemployment insurance agency UWV appear to support the unions’ claims. They show that the number of people in their sixties claiming WIA has increased by 8% in the last 15 years, coinciding with a rise in the statutory retirement age from 65 to 67.

The previous government introduced rules allowing people in demanding manual roles to qualify for their pension at 64.

But the incoming coalition has opted not to freeze this ruling, meaning these workers face having to work until the age of 67 by 2060.

Daniël van Vuuren, professor of labour economics at Tilburg University, said the waiting list for WIA applications was set to grow from 100,000 to 200,000 in the next three years and warned the problem will get worse once the new rules take effect in 2033.

He called on the government to move towards a system that gives workers more flexibility in deciding when they retire. “It is unfair to have everyone claiming their pension at the same age,” Van Vuuren said.