The upcoming local elections are in danger of being affected by foreign political influence, hate campaigns and AI deep fakes, according to a report by a group of experts in online behaviour. 

The researchers said that the national elections at the end of October had been “free and honest” but that new events are increasing the threat of manipulation in the approaching local elections on March 18.

The government must monitor political influence on elections via social media “much more vigorously”, Post-X Society director Pieter van Boheemen told the NRC.

He referred to AI-generated videos of assaults on former PvdA-GroenLinks leader Frans Timmermans and D66 leader Rob Jetten, which flooded social media platforms TikTok and Facebook in the run-up to the October vote.

“There is plenty of research that shows that online hate campaigns ultimately result in actual violence. The fact that Timmermans was accosted in an Amsterdam cafe was no coincidence if you look at the amount of online hate against him,” Van Boheemen said.

Many of the online threats were orchestrated from Vietnam and West Africa, and  MPs circulated AI manipulated images on a large scale, Van Boheemen said.

“Online platforms did not react to reports of content clearly in breach of their own guidelines. The national watchdog could do little because the monitoring of the big platforms is a matter for the European Commission, and whether they did anything with the reports is unclear. So some structural failures need to be addressed,” he said.

The researchers also found proof that so-called “troll farms” which provide “likes” for payment, had been active but it remained unclear who paid them.

The biggest danger for the upcoming elections lies in the use of AI, Van Boheemen said.

AI images are increasingly difficult to distinguish from real images, he said.  “The minute something happens, manipulated images appear. Individuals or parties who do this, or pay others to do this increase their influence. It is crazy that we, as private companies, are monitoring these risks. It is up to the government to be much more vigilant.”