Caretaker asylum minister David van Weel has warned that the Netherlands faces “a big problem” if MPs do not back his revision of two previously approved asylum laws before the Christmas recess.

In an interview with current affairs show Nieuwsuur, the VVD minister said he was “not very hopeful that a future cabinet will take action on migration” if the package collapses.

The VVD and BBB – the only remaining parties in the outgoing coalition – are pushing to deliver the promise of stricter asylum rules and want the amended legislation adopted before the break.

Van Weel said he expects the proposals to win enough support: “We have listened, and I think the bill should have sufficient backing,” he said.

However, talks held by Nieuwsuur with several parties indicate that a majority is far from certain. D66 says the law would be unworkable, while the CDA still has “many questions”. The far right PVV also has its doubts.

The make-up of the lower house has also changed considerably since the two asylum laws were passed by the lower house of parliament last summer.

The plans include cutting refugee residency permits from five to three years, making family reunions more difficult, and making a distinction between refugees fleeing war and those who face persecution.

Just before the summer vote, the PVV added a provision to one that would make it a criminal offence to live in the Netherlands without the proper paperwork. This would also criminalise offering help to people without residency papers by “giving them a bowl of soup”.

Uncertain support

NOS political analyst Arjan Noorlander said support for the two bills remains highly uncertain. D66 will not back the plan, the PVV faces difficulty supporting a measure that would hand the VVD and BBB a political win, and the CDA is tied to negotiations with D66.

At the same time, he said, the parties involved in the current coalition talks know that if the stricter asylum laws pass now, the issue need not be reopened by them.

The Dutch immigration service has again warned that legislation to bring in stricter rules on asylum will lead to major problems and a far greater workload.