The number of diagnoses has fallen sharply since 2010 thanks to preventive medication, rapid testing and good oversight of almost everyone living with HIV. Last year, 444 new cases were recorded, roughly the same as in previous years and that means the decline has now stalled, the foundation said.

“We expect an increase in the coming years based on our models,” foundation director Marc van der Valk told the Volkskrant. “That is worrying.”

For several years it appeared that the Netherlands was moving towards the end of HIV as a sexually transmitted infection. The national goal was to reach zero new infections by 2030, and Amsterdam – home to the highest number of people with HIV – aimed to eliminate new cases by 2026.

At the end of last year, an estimated 1,610 people in the Netherlands were unaware they had the virus, up from 1,545 a year earlier. In total, almost 26,000 people are living with HIV.

Better medication means deaths from HIV are now rare, and people who take their medication correctly cannot transmit the virus. But the diagnosis can still carry a heavy emotional burden, Van der Valk said. “Daily medication is not nothing. And there is still stigma. You might mention diabetes at a party, but you are not likely to talk about HIV.”

The foundation said the rise in new diagnoses is mainly among gay men born after 1980, particularly those on low incomes.

One key measure in preventing HIV is PrEP which is not part of the basic health insurance package and costs from €17 to €67 a month.

Charity Aidsfonds also supports adding PrEP to the basic package. “Condoms work well against STIs and many people use them, but not always,” said director Mark Vermeulen. “And PrEP is simply an effective way to protect yourself from a lifelong chronic condition.”