Ukrainians in the Netherlands contributed €3.5 billion to the economy last year and the figure is likely to rise to €5 billion in the next two years if they stay, new research has shown.

SEO Economic Research found that two-thirds of adult Ukrainians were working, amounting to 50,000 workers contributing €280 million in income tax and €85 million in VAT.

Under the special protection rules that apply across the EU following the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukrainians can live and work in the Netherlands without a visa or work permit.

Refugees from other countries who are banned from working for the first six months and have to live in accommodation centres while their applications are processed. Only 12% of asylum seekers are currently in work.

Bart Dikkeschei, of social staffing agency Heroyam, told the Telegraaf that Ukrainians were making a “significant” contribution to the economy.

“It costs a lot of money to take these people in, so it’s wonderful to see that they’re able to give something back quickly,” he said.

“The Ukrainians are a kind of experiment: what happens when you let new arrivals go straight into the labour market with no restrictions? And it turns out that these people integrate relatively well and are far more involved in society than people living in asylum centres.”

Uncertain future

The experience of Ukrainians is not wholly positive: many end up working in low-skilled jobs below their education level, and local authorities recently raised concern about the poor prospects and mental health of Ukrainian school leavers.

The future is uncertain because their residential status is not permanent, which can discourage them from taking language classes or training for better paid work.

But SEO said it expected the contribution of Ukrainians to increase to €5 billion in 2027, although much depends on the progress of the war.

If Ukrainians go back home en masse when the war ends, the loss of their labour could be felt in the economy, Dikkeschei said. “If you take out 50,000 working people, you get conveyor belts that stop running.”