The Netherlands will not meet its climate, nature and environmental targets unless the next government intervenes much more forcefully in the farming sector, the government’s environment think-tank has warned.

In a new report published less than two weeks before the general election, the environmental assessment agency (PBL) said most party manifestos “fall far short” of what is needed to make farming sustainable. Even the plans drawn up by the more progressive parties would not be enough to protect water quality, nature and the climate, the agency said.

The PBL describes the challenge for farming as “a task of historic proportions”. It says between 150,000 and 200,000 hectares of farmland must be turned into nature areas where no agriculture takes place, three to four times more than current government policy provides for.

Only the pro-animal rights Party for the Animals (PvdD) comes close to that scale of ambition. Many other parties, including GroenLinks–PvdA, D66, Volt and the SP, want to expand the amount of protected nature but either give no target or propose a smaller increase, such as D66’s plan for 50,000 extra hectares.

The agency also says large parts of the remaining land will need to be farmed much less intensively, particularly within one to two kilometres of nature reserves. That means fewer animals or lower-yield farming methods, which will be difficult to achieve without compulsory measures.

Politicians have so far avoided forcing farmers to quit. But, the PBL says, the next government will have to take “decisive choices” about which agricultural activities can continue and where.

“Meeting the goals requires a clear break with the past 25 years,” the report states.

The PBL outlines two broad paths for the future. In one, technical innovation will allow polluting emissions to fall sharply while livestock numbers remain roughly the same, but this would lead to more large-scale, intensive farms and fewer smallholdings.

In the other projection, farming would become less intensive, which would make the countryside more nature-friendly but also put pressure on farmers’ incomes.

The government has 25 years to meet its legal obligations, the report concludes, “but that will require far greater ambition and much faster progress than we have seen so far.”