The Christian Democrats, under the leadership of Henri Bontenbal, have moved into joint second place in the latest poll of voter intentions ahead of the October general election.

The Ipsos-I&O poll puts the far-right PVV on 27 seats in the 150-seat lower house of parliament, down 10 from its 2023 total, with the CDA and the PvdA-GroenLinks alliance both on 24.The CDA, previously a key party in every post WWII coalition, won just five seats in 2023.

The right-wing VVD, which published its manifesto earlier this month, is in third place with 20 seats. D66 has risen in the new poll from nine to 12 seats, three more than it won in the 2023 general election.

Ipsos-I&O says the rise in support for the CDA is due to the popularity of its young leader Bontenbal, who refused to back controversial asylum legislation drawn up by the outgoing administration on legal and moral grounds.

“He is seen as a future prime minister, who comes over as being clear and fair,” the polling organisation said. “One former VVD voter put it this way: ‘I like the sense of calm in the CDA’.”

VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has been criticised by many within the Liberal party for her populist approach and her social media presence, including her outspoken criticism of singer Douwe Bob earlier this summer.

The other main surge in support is for the far-right JA21, which would rise from one to seven seats in the 150-seat parliament if there were an election tomorrow. Its support comes mainly from the PVV.

New party NSC, which won 20 seats in 2023, is on track to disappear from parliament entirely, while the pro-countryside BBB is expected to lose half its support. Both parties are part of the current coalition.

The other parties are all hovering around their current levels with two or three seats.

The Netherlands will vote for a new lower house of parliament on 29 October, following the collapse of the right-wing coalition after the PVV withdrew.