The import tariffs announced by the Trump administration on April 2 could reduce Dutch GDP growth by around 1% by the end of 2026, according to an analysis by the government’s macro-economic forecasting agency CPB.

If the tariffs are implemented, the Dutch economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2025 — 0.4 percentage point lower than previously forecast — and by just 0.9% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.6 percentage point.

However, the CPB said the weakening of the US dollar would cushion the impact on inflation.

The agency modelled two scenarios: one in which only the US imposes tariffs, as announced in April (but later postponed), and a second in which affected countries respond with retaliatory tariffs of equal scope.

In both scenarios, the CPB said, tariffs not only directly affect trade but also increase uncertainty, which “has a negative impact on investment and can also trigger instability in the financial markets”.

However, the depreciation of the dollar means the Netherlands pays less for US imports, including commodities such as oil, helping to limit inflationary pressures, the CPB said.

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The CPB said the long-term impact on GDP would be smaller than the short-term effect, as companies adapt and find alternative markets.

“The ultimate impact will differ by sector,” the agency said. “In the longer term, manufacturing will continue to suffer from its reduced competitiveness relative to the US, but service sectors may actually benefit.”

Exports

National statistics agency the CBS said on Wednesday that the Netherlands exported €3.3 billion worth of steel and aluminium products to the US last year. These goods fall under the tariffs announced by president Donald Trump.

In total, 8.5% of Dutch exports to the US are affected by the new steel and aluminium levies. The US was the Netherlands’ fifth-largest export market in 2024, with goods exports totalling €38.4 billion.