The government plans to cut back subsidies and raise value-added tax from 9% to 21% will set back the cultural sector by between €200 million to €350 million a year, an assessment on behalf of private financiers, local councils and arts organisations has shown.

Around half of the money supporting the cultural sector comes from subsidies from the government and local councils. The hike in tax will also make tickets more expensive and affect visitor numbers, which are expected to fall by between 9% and 12%, the assessment shows.

Income from lottery organisations will also fall because of a higher tax on gambling while strapped local councils are likely to spend the money elsewhere. The government measures, which were not tested for their financial impact, are meant to make the cultural sector less dependent on subsidies.

“This has nothing to do with the survival of the fittest,” director of the Cultuurfonds Cathelijne Broers told broadcaster NOS. “Every artist, organisation and theatre company in the Netherlands will suffer.

“This is going to cut and burn through the sector: subsidised and unsubsidised organisations, well-known artists and those just starting out, across the country, not just the Randstad,” she said.

Whether or not the plans will go ahead will become clear on Friday at the presentation of the government programme and on budget day next Tuesday. According to an earlier leak the government will go ahead with the tax hike, which will also hit hotels, sport and books, despite protests from the opposition.

Research on behalf of the newspaper, magazine and book publishing industry also suggests income will fall by 8% to €94 million because of the btw rise, and that several hundred jobs will go.