New poll gives clear lead to VVD, with one week to the election

Photo: Dutch News

A new opinion poll by I&O research shows a sharp drop in support for Pieter Omtzigt’s new party NSC and a clear lead for the VVD, which is the biggest party in the current government.

The poll puts NSC on 25 seats in the 150-seat parliament, down four on last week. The VVD added one seat in the I&O poll and is now on 27. The left-wing GroenLinks/PvdA alliance is on 23, down one on last week’s poll. 

The poll also shows a slight increase in support for Geert Wilder’s far-right PVV, whose tally is up by two seats to 20. No other party is tipped to win more than 10 seats. 

Despite the drop, Omtzigt is still by far the most popular politician, with a score of 6.7 out of 10. VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz is on six and alliance leader Frans Timmermans on 4.9. 

“It’s only a poll but all the polls show the same trend, that the VVD and NSC are very close together and the GroenLinks/PvdA combine are close behind,” said RTL commentator Fons Lambie. “But a lot can happen in a week, as in the 2021 general election. Then D66 was polling at 14 seats but went on to win 24.” 

Looking at possible coalitions, a right-leaning group with the VVD, NSC, BBB and PVV would be an option, Lambie said. But the NSC in particular has said it won’t work with Wilders, despite his efforts to seem like a potential coalition partner.

Wilders said on Tuesday that cutting immigration, boosting healthcare and improving the financial security of low-income households and are higher priorities than his traditional main theme of the “de-Islamification” of the Netherlands. 

A poll by Ipsos for TV show EenVandaag on Tuesday also said the right-wing liberal VVD hasa narrow lead over Pieter Omtzigt’s centre-right NSC, with both unchanged on 28 and 26 seats respectively.

According to that poll, no party is projected to win more than 18% of the vote, with 16 parties in the frame to return at least one MP.  It also put the GroenLinks/PvdA alliance on 23, while the anti-Islam PVV unchanged on 17 in fourth place.

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