Everything to fight for: election three horse race continues

Photo: DutchNews.nl

Four weeks before the general election, the latest poll of polls shows little change in the positions of the parties, with the top three – VVD, NSC and the GroenLinks/PvdA alliance – holding on to their clear leads. 

The poll of polls is an amalgam of the  I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag polls and puts the right-wing VVD narrowly in the lead with 25 to 29 seats in the 150-seat lower house of parliament. Pieter Omtzigt’s Nieuw Sociaal Contract is on 23 to 29 while the GroenLinks/PvdA combine is on 21 to 25.

The difference between the three parties is so small that Groningen political scientist Tom Louwerse, who compiles the poll, said they are virtually at the same level. 

Fourth in the poll of polls is the far right PVV on 16 to 20 seats, while the pro-farmers BBB, hit hard by the launch of NSC, would win 10 to 14. All the other parties are below 10 seats. 

There has been little change in support for the parties since the NSC was launched at the end of August even though the party has only just published its manifesto for the November 22 election. The Hamas-Israel war has also had little impact on voting intentions, pollsters say.

Nevertheless, a large number of voters are still undecided about who to back and the number of “don’t knows” remains high. I&O Research reports that 23% of its sample voters are still floating. 

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