The housing shortage in the Netherlands has deepened in recent years and is not expected to ease until 2028, according to new research.

The latest prognosis by ABF Research, which carries out an annual assessment for the interior ministry, said the backlog in newbuild houses is currently 390,000, compared to 315,00 a year ago, an increase of nearly a quarter.

Constructors are on course to build 95,000 houses this year, in line with government targets, but the pace is expected to slow in the next two years to around 78,000.

Researcher Léon Groenemeijer told the Financieele Dagblad that the government was likely to fall short of its target of building 900,000 homes by 2030. ABF estimates that 834,000 is a realistic figure.

The problems are caused by a combination of high demand and provincial governments, which are responsible for large-scale planning, not being able to arrange building permits fast enough.

The requirement to reduce nitrous oxide emissions to comply with European conservation laws has also made it harder for constructors to obtain environmental permits.

“Regional authorities have made lots of plans, but the number of construction permits is going backwards fast,” Groenemeijer said.

ABF expects the construction industry to catch up after 2028 as the bottleneck eases, possibly by modifying unfinished projects.

Population growth

Accelerating population growth has added to the demand, with the 224,000 more inhabitants last year.

The number was swelled by more than 100,000 refugees arriving from Ukraine, but the statistics agency CBS predicts the population will grow by 120,000 a year in the short term.

Housing minister Hugo de Jonge admitted recently that next year will be “difficult” for housebuilders as high interest rates and rising overhead boost costs.

Developers have also criticised De Jonge’s plans to bring 90% of rented housing under rent controls, which they say act as a disincentive.

The fall of Mark Rutte’s cabinet last week is also likely to hold up the progress of legislation on housebuilding, as the caretaker government can only introduce laws in non-controversial areas.

De Jonge had been working on draft legislation to cut the total time taken to build a new house from conception to completion, but this is now likely to be shelved.