With two weeks to go before the provincial elections, which will determine the composition of the senate or upper house of parliament, polls indicate the VVD is likely to remain the largest party.

New research by Ipsos suggests the VVD will win 15 seats in the 75 seat senate, up three on its current total.

But the current government coalition will only win 28, and that means they will need to find even more support among the opposition to get controversial legislation through both houses of parliament. The coalition currently has 32 seats, six short of a majority.

The most likely alliance for the cabinet would be with GroenLinks and the PvdA, who are forming a single grouping in the senate. According to Ipsos, they are on target to win 13 seats (eight for GroenLinks and five for the social democrats).

On the right of the coalition, the situation is more fragmented. The far right PVV and the conservative farmers party BBB are both forecast to win nine seats each. JA21 is on target to take three while Forum voor Democratie, which won 12 senate seats in 2019 but has since fallen apart amid scandals and conspiracy theories, will win only two.

The senate is elected in May by provincial councillors and so reflects the outcome of the regional elections.