Most European countries will go into recession by the end of this year and this situation will continue until spring 2023, the European Commission said in its latest economic forecasts on Friday.

The commission said the Dutch economy is set to stagnate in the third quarter and to contract modestly in the fourth. Overall, Dutch GDP growth in 2022 will be 4.6%.

A country is considered to be in recession if the economy contracts for two successive quarters.

Read the forecast

‘The shocks unleashed by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine are denting global demand and reinforcing global inflationary pressures,’ the commission said. ‘The EU is among the most exposed advanced economies, due to its geographical proximity to the war and heavy reliance on gas imports from Russia.’

The commission estimates the EU economy will grow by 0.3% next year but that the Dutch figure will be double that at 0.6%. In 2024, Dutch economic growth is put at 1.6%.

Inflation is expected to decline in 2023, but to remain high at 7% in the wider EU and 6.1% in the eurozone before going down in 2024 to 3% and 2.6% respectively.

The rate of inflation in the Netherlands, currently one of the highest in the eurozone, will go down to 4.2% next year, the commission said.