The likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is increasing and, if it happens, the Dutch economy will be one of the worst hit in Europe, according to calculations by credit insurer Euler Hermes.

A no-deal Brexit will deliver a sledgehammer blow to the Netherlands, coming on top of the coronavirus crisis, the agency said on Wednesday. The total impact is likely to cost the eurozone €33bn, and the Netherlands will be hit to the tune of €4.8bn, second only to Germany, Euler Hermes said.

‘The chance of a hard Brexit has risen to almost 50%, according to our research department,’ said Johan Geeroms, risk director Euler Hermes Netherlands. ‘You cannot close your eyes to the social, political and economic consequences which will come on top of the coronavirus crisis.’

Euler Hermes expects that the Netherlands will lose 10.5% of the current value of exports to the UK (- € 4.8 billion), partly due to the rise in import prices.  Germany will take a €8.2bn hit and France €3.6bn.

‘Many companies have no idea about ​​the logistical disruption ahead because coronavirus is keeping them otherwise occupied,’ Geeroms said.

‘If we get a no-deal Brexit, all exports to the UK will be overhauled. New agreements will be needed for road, air and sea transport and there will also be enormous disruption within supply chains, an increase in red tape and loss of efficiency,’ he said.