The first major opinion poll since the summer break puts both PVV and the ruling VVD level on between 16.7% and 19.3% support, as backing for Geert Wilders’ party continues to drop.
The big gainer in the new poll of polls, which is based on five separate opinion polls, is 50Plus, which has rose from 2.7% to 4.7% in July and is now on 7.3%.
The PVV peaked at the beginning of this year at up to 26% but has fallen steadily since then. The party has 15 seats in the current parliament – meaning about 10% of voters backed Wilders at the 2012 general election. The next election will take place in March 2017.
The drop in support for the anti-Islam party has not been investigated by pollsters but some say the reduction in the number of asylum seekers coming to the Netherlands may have a role.
The party has also been criticised for publishing an unworkable manifesto, including the closure of mosques, a ban on the Koran and closed borders to refugees.
New splinter party Denk, created by two former Labour MPs of Turkish origin, would win one seat if there was an election tomorrow as would VoorNederland, the PVV spin-off led by Jan Roos, one of the brains behind the recent anti-Ukraine referendum.
The Christian Democrats, D66 Liberal Democrats and the Socialist party can count on between 9.3% and 12% support, with the ruling Labour party still trailing on 7.3% to 8.7%.