Poll of Polls shows support for Wilders is exaggerated

Voting form with red pencil filling in a black circleThe first poll of polls of 2016 shows little change in the political preferences of the Netherlands but does highlight that support for the anti-Islam PVV may be exaggerated, broadcaster Nos says on Wednesday.

Support for Geert Wilders’ PVV would give him between 33 and 39 seats in the 150 seat parliament, but this is unchanged from November, the poll of polls shows. This means Wilders would score between 22% and 26% of the vote if there were a general election tomorrow

On Sunday, pollster Maurice de Hond said the PVV had now risen to a record 41 seats (27.3%) – up 1.3 percentage point compared with two weeks ago.

Margin of error

However, political scientist Tom Louwerse, who compiles the poll of polls from four separate systems, said this rise is within De Hond’s margin of error and all that can be concluded is that there has been a ‘cautious’ increase in support for the anti-Islam party.

In addition, support for the PVV is by far the largest in the De Hond poll, which is carried out online among people who registered to take part, he pointed out.

In the most recent Politieke Barometer poll, the PVV is on 30 seats (20%) while the EenVandaag and TNS Nipo polls put the party’s support at 22%. However, the PVV is by far the biggest party in all the polls, Louwerse points out.

The poll of polls puts the ruling VVD in second place with 20 to 25 seats, or between 13% and 17% support, followed by the Christian Democrats and liberal Democratic party D66.

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