The Dutch economy will grow by 1.5% in 2015, according to the latest prognosis from the government’s macro-economic think-tank CPB.

This is up on earlier forecasts and is largely due to increasing exports and family spending, the CPB said. Nevertheless, the recovery remains fragile and could be hit by international developments. ‘International risks translate directly into higher or lower economic growth,’ the CPB said.

Low inflation forms a second uncertainty because of the risk of deflation. ‘This would lead to an increase in government and household debt,’ the CPB said.

Earlier this week, the Dutch central bank said the Dutch economy is increasingly growing under its own steam as domestic spending picks up but revised down its growth figure.

After two years of contraction, the Dutch economy is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2014 and to pick up further in the years ahead, to 1.2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, the central bank said.

This is, however, less than the bank forecast six months ago, when it put the 2015 and 2016 growth figure at 1.6%.