With three months to go before the European parliamentary elections, the first EU-wide poll suggests social democratic parties will emerge as the biggest grouping and that Geert Wilders’ PVV will not win more than five seats in the Netherlands.

PollWatch 2014 – a project developed by VoteWatch Europe– predicts the Socialists will win 221 seats in the new parliament, a gain of 27 seats on their present numbers.

The big winners, the poll suggests, will be parties who are either critical of or opposed to the EU. They are poised to take 29% of the seats.

According to the PollWatch estimates, a far-right group composed of Marine Le Pen‘s National Front, the PVV, Austria’s Freedom Party, Vlaams Belang in Belgium, the Sweden Democrats and the Northern League (Italy) is a possibility. ‘These groups are slated to win 38 seats, but would need to secure members from seven countries,’ the organisation points out.

Support for the PVV itself remains around 17% – in line with its share of the Dutch vote at the last European elections in 2009, the poll shows. TNS Nipo did the research for the Netherlands in mid-January.

Current support for the PVV is between 16.6% and 19.3%, depending on the polling organisation.