The Socialist Party is the main challenger to the VVD Liberals in two of the three main Dutch opinion polls but the results differ sharply about how great the margin between the two parties is.

A TNS-Nipo poll on Friday puts the ruling VVD on 28 seats and the SP on 26. This represents a loss of three seats for the right-wing Liberals on their June 2010 general election performance and a 15-seat gain for the Socialists.
But a Maurice de Hond’s poll on Sunday put the VVD on 31 and the SP on 29. And Thursday’s poll by Synovate gave the VVD 35 seats and put the SP third with 22.
CDA
The polls are all united on the poor showing of the Christian Democrats, who form the minority coalition government with the VVD. The coalition is propped up in a formal alliance with the anti-Islam PVV.
The PVV won 24 seats at the general election, and remains unchanged in all three polls, down from earlier highs of around 28. Commentators said earlier this week the party would appear to have reached its natural level of support.
The fortunes of both Labour (PvdA) and the Christian Democrats remain in the doldrums. The PvdA, which won 30 seats at the general election is now hovering around 16 to 18 while the CDA – which won 21 of the 150 parliamentary seats in July 2010 – ranges from 12 to 16.
Leadership
The CDA holds its annual party conference later this month to discuss a change in strategy and its leadership problems. The party has been without a formal figurehead since the June 2010 vote when it lost almost half its seats.
Labour has also been struggling with leadership issues, with senior members saying privately former Amsterdam mayor Job Cohen has not been able to give the party a strong profile in parliament.
All the polls show the SP’s success is largely at the expense of Labour. The SP’s leader Emile Roemer is one of the most popular politicians in parliament.