Who ever said Dutch politics was boring? There is stuff happening here that would even make Niccolo Macchiavelli blush, writes Kaj Leers.

First a deputy minister resigns due to an extra-marital affair, then the Christian Democrats of the CDA are trounced during the elections, losing 20 of 41 seats. Then negotiations for a minority government, a first in Dutch history and supported by anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders, actually work out – only to get stalled because two members of the CDA in parliament are refusing to support it.
Sure, it’s not as eye-popping as politicians going at each other with their fists in public view, like in Taiwan, or anything like the scorching civil war now being fought for the soul of the Republican party in the United States. But what is happening here is red meat served with a Saint-Emilion Grand Cru for pundits like me.
In essence, the problems within the CDA all boil down to a power struggle between the left and the right wings. The party is a federation of sorts, established officially in 1980, when Protestants and Catholics of three different parties united themselves under one banner.
It also united people of different political colour and background without doing much to alleviate the differences. Underlying tensions were carefully hidden from view thanks to a rigidly enforced party discipline. Only at times did tensions come to a head, such as in 1983, when two members of parliament left the CDA.
On June 9 of this year, the party got a beating at the polls, losing 20 seats. It wasn’t the first time that the CDA, which has been in government since 1980 (it spent only eight years in opposition, from 1994 until 2002) was rejected by the voter. Tensions were largely kept at bay then, but this time the genie left the bottle with a big bang.
Interim party leader Maxime Verhagen believes that the last thing the CDA should do is go into opposition. He doesn’t want to go back to the bleak opposition days of 1994-2002. And so the CDA must somehow find a way to get back into government – preferably a right-wing government, if it is up to Verhagen and his faction.
This has the left wing of the party up in arms. They don’t want the CDA to drift off too far to the right, and they certainly don’t want to cooperate with Geert Wilders. He has now become a lighting rod for the left wing of the CDA.
The much respected, but lately very much vilified party ideologue and Member of Parliament Ab Klink caved in under the enormous pressure put on him when he announced that he would be voting against the agreements with Geert Wilders. He left the CDA in parliament, his seat automatically being handed to another CDA-member who promptly announced his support. But that wasn’t the end of it: MPs Kathleen Ferrier and Ad Koppejan are now also in opposition to the deal, and so far they seem unrelenting.
The problem for Maxime Verhagen is that the minority government rests on the smallest possible majority with the aid of the PVV: 76 seats. If Koppejan and Ferrier withhold their support, that falls to 74.
Last Saturday the rebellious MPs received support at a CDA party conference. A sizeable minority of 32% of those present voted against the idea, giving Ferrier and Koppejan a boost in confidence and support. Reinvigorated, the two rogue MPs said they would think about what they will do this Tuesday, when the CDA MPs meet to discuss the outcome of the party conference and have their own vote on whether they accept the government agreements.
The constitution gives MPs the freedom to vote their conscience. Ferrier and Koppejan left no doubt about their position.
Doubtless, a new set of novelties in Dutch politics is sure to make headlines on this site the coming days. In theory, the internal voting on the agreements within the CDA in parliament doesn’t need to be unanimous. A majority vote, thus 11 of the 21 MPs voting in favour is enough. But the problem is what happens after that. Without the votes of Ferrier and Koppejan, the government lacks the majority to enact laws. They would fail to enact the changes Wilders so desperately wants on immigration, the general ban on burqas such as in France, and the banning of headscarves in the police forces and the courts.
It is very likely that Wilders will withdraw his support for the minority government if Verhagen can’t deliver the goods, throwing the CDA and the country into chaos.
Yet the story doesn’t end there. There is the exotic possibility of the minority government also teaming up with the SGP, a fundamentalist Protestant splinter party that has two seats in parliament, potentially bringing the majority to 76.
Mark Rutte, leader of the VVD and prime minister in waiting, has already made overtures to the fundamentalists, but that probably won’t be enough for Queen Beatrix, who wants a stable government resting on a solid majority in parliament.
She may demand that Rutte start official negotiations with the SGP in order to have it sign government agreements like Rutte did with the PVV. That, however, may cause a rupture within the VVD, which thinks of itself as a Liberal party and thus the exact opposite of the SGP madmen.
Dealing with a party that has dubious thoughts on the freedom of Islam is one thing, negotiating with a party that prides itself on its medieval views on the position of women is apparently a bridge too far for many a VVD member. Even a women’s rights committee of the United Nations regularly criticizes the Netherlands for harboring the SGP, which forbids women from holding elected office. Actually, any office, come to think of it.
At least two prominent members of the VVD, including a former party leader, in recent weeks left the VVD in protest to join D66 because of the VVD’s dealings with Wilders. The two were seen as obnoxious left-wingers by the dominant right wing anyway, so there was hardly a murmur.
But the thought of the VVD dealing with the SGP may start a riot Rutte can’t contain. Is he willing to take that risk? Is the VVD leadership willing to hand in its founding ideals in exchange for power?
If you made it this far without gnawing at your elbow hysterically, then you have my sincere congratulations. Dutch politics have always been complicated and unfortunately, it is likely that the mess may become much more complicated in the months ahead.
Kaj Leers is a financial journalist and part-time political commentator