Support for new coalition drops, no longer has virtual majority

Conceptual visualization of doubt when voting for elections

The four parties forming the next Dutch government would win less than 76 seats – the threshold for a majority – if an election were held now, according to the latest Ipsos poll.

The far-right PVV would be the biggest party in parliament with 42 seats – five more than they have currently, but five fewer than their peak level on May 13, just before the coalition’s outline agreement was published.

The biggest fall was registered by Nieuw Sociaal Contract, the party formed by Pieter Omtzigt last August, which won 20 seats at the election but is now projected to return just seven MPs.

NSC has lost one virtual seat since the May 13 poll while the right-wing liberal VVD has gained one to record 18, still six fewer than it won in November.

The farmers’ party BBB is the most stable, retaining the seven seats it gained in parliament. Altogether the four parties are now projected to win 74 seats, a drop of five since May 13. A more recent poll on May 21 gave the parties 78 seats, compared to the 88 seats they have in parliament.

Latest IPSOS poll shows the coalition parties have lost 4 seats since the last poll in May.

Opposition parties have made modest gains in the last six weeks. The Christian Democrats (CDA) are projected to win nine seats, overtaking NSC and BBB, who gained when voters deserted the CDA in the last year.

Declining trust

GroenLinks-PvdA, the largest opposition party, and D66, have each gained one seat, while the animal rights party PvdD have gone from five to seven. An “alternative coalition” of GL-PvdA, VVD, D66, NSC and CDA would still be four seats short of a majority.

The poll also showed a sharp fall in trust among supporters of the four parties for the right-wing coalition. VVD and NSC voters in particular are increasingly doubtful that the cabinet can survive and distrust PVV leader Geert Wilders.

In the second May poll 50% of all voters were “very” or “fairly” satisfied with the incoming government, while 39% were dissatisfied. The latest poll shows just 39% are satisfied and 43% dissatisfied, while the proportion of don’t knows has grown from 11% to 18%.

Among the four parties in the coalition satisfaction fell most among VVD voters, dropping from 77% to 59%, while for NSC voters it fell from 78% to 69%. The BBB has the most enthusiastic voter base, with 86% still satisfied with the cabinet, while support among PVV voters remains strong at 81%, but has slipped from 92% in May.

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