CPB sees continuing economic growth but warns of trade war impact

The CPB published new economic forecasts on Tuesday showing that while the Dutch economy will continue to grow, the period of peak economic growth is now probably over.

The CPB puts GDP growth this year at 2.9% and at 2.7% in 2019, both down on the March forecasts and both below on the 2017 figure, which it now puts at 3.2%.

The June forecasts by the government’s macro-economic think-tank are used by the government to plan its spending in the coming years, ahead of the September budget.

‘The Dutch economy is benefiting from the excellent growth in world trade and domestic dynamics, but political risks have increased on an international level,’ the CPB said.

Brexit

‘Political developments in Italy and around the Brexit have their immediate effect on the Dutch economy, as does the developing conflict with the United States over international trade.’

While the trade restrictions currently will only have a negligible impact on global growth ‘escalation could have far-reaching consequences and may lead to substantial long-term GDP losses,’ the CPB said.

Central bank

On Monday the Dutch central bank too warned that protectionism, possibly culminating into a trade war between the United States, China and the EU, does pose a real risk to the projected economic developments in the Netherlands

If the trade conflict escalates, ‘the Dutch economy will be severely affected, with annual GDP growth 0.5 percentage points down in all three years,’ the bank said.

Its forecasts for Dutch economic growth are also below those of the CPB, at 2.5% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019.