Without a drastic change in the coalition parties’ popularity there will be a major shift in the political balance in The Hague after the March provincial elections, the Volkskrant reports on Wednesday.

The latest monthly analysis from research group GfK shows the coalition parties could lose more than half their 2012 support, which will give the opposition the upper hand in the senate.

Provincial councillors determine the political make-up of the upper house of parliament. The government currently relies on the D66 Liberals and two minor Christian parties to ensure a majority vote in favour of legislation.

But the polls indicate that the coalition could be 20 seats short of a majority in the upper house – a gap which is too big to be filled by the three ‘friendly’ opposition parties. There are 75 senators.

The GFK poll suggests the VVD Liberals would be in third place, behind Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration PVV and D66, while support for the coalition Labour party will plunge.

This, the paper says, will make it virtually impossible for the coalition to get any legislation through the senate and that plans to overhaul the tax system could be the first to suffer.