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Bottom of housing market slide not yet in sight: ABN AmroThursday 26 July 2012 The slide in house prices is set to continue for some time to come with ABN Amro economists forecasting an 8% drop next year, the Volkskrant said on Thursday. The number of homes changing hands is also set to fall by 14% next year, the ABN Amro economists said. Three months ago, the bank was more positive, forecasting a 3% drop in sales in 2013. Since then, however, the threat of a long recession has intensified and spending power has shrunk, making people less interested in moving house. This year, ABN Amro and the NVM estate agents organisation are both forecasting a 5% fall in house prices. An added problem facing the market is the uncertaintly surrounding mortgage tax relief. Most parties have included restrictions in their manifestos for the September general election. Are you thinking about buying a house? Share your thoughts using the comment form below. © DutchNews.nl Readers' Comments |
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I would buy a detached house with 250sqm land minimum and 140sqm living area minimum made after 2000 in a quite neighborhood with big kitchen and wide generous big stairways up to the 2nd floor (not like the ones used in submarines or space capsules) for 250.000 euros just 1km away from my work place and close to several grocery stores and proven energy label A.
That's what it would cost me in the US, Canada, or Germany and that's what I pay for here.
By dork | 26 July 2012 9:42 AM@dork - you can get them here at probably that price in Almere or lelystad or even a bit up north. However, if you're expecting that in Amsterdam, Hilversum, Laren, Blaricum etc, it might take a total collapse of the economy for that to happen.
By Mecha Camel | 26 July 2012 10:16 AM8% drop ? hu. try more 30-50% what is the house price worth if banks cant loan ponzie money anymore. house prices are supported by the paper ponzie scheme.
By jock | 26 July 2012 12:17 PMDork, not all The Netherlands was created equally. I have that, for <120k.
By Alice | 26 July 2012 1:38 PMwe were urged by real estate agents and other expats to buy an apartment when we came 6 yrs ago, but i'm so glad we did not.
By M | 26 July 2012 1:55 PMNo I wouldn't buy, it's simple - if it feels like a rip off it is!
By Phil | 26 July 2012 3:30 PMI am thinking selling next year and buying in a different area... and to be honest, these sort of forcasts, whether they eventuate or not, are totally irrelevant to me as I am buying and selling in the same market.
By Marc | 26 July 2012 3:33 PMI have bought a house in Haarlem for 240.000. For the same price in Italy you can have a larger, newer, "human friedly" house. But not in NL, so why complaining? Set lower prices, you'll see market will grow again
By MIchele | 26 July 2012 3:55 PMI read here recently that only 2000 'vast' contracts were issued in the Netherlands last year. Until employers enable their employers to actually qualify for mortgages, you're going to see an awful big slide yet to come.
That's great for sellers with lots of equity who can afford to lower the prices, not so great for people who bought in the last 5? 10? years though.
But why would someone in decent quality social housing take the risk of buying a house in this market, knowing they couldn't sell it again if they needed to, possibly for many years?
By osita | 26 July 2012 5:39 PMThe Netherlands is not exactly the best choice to invest in buying a home but neither is the US unless you have plenty of disposable income. With more businesses failing, retirement funds in disarray, bankruptcies rising, and job markets losing ground, it doesn't seem like a sensible idea to tie yourself down with a house until the economy improves. That seems unlikely to happen in the next 3-5 years.
By M | 26 July 2012 5:55 PMVery well said Dork. Makelaars and handelaars of holland want to make easy money on others....too bad their time is over....
By james bond | 26 July 2012 6:07 PM@dork. Typical smart appearing comment. You might want to compare the population density before speaking out of your rear end.
By Neo | 26 July 2012 9:15 PM250k for such a house in Canada, Germany or US? Maybe yes, but in the middle of nowhere. You cannot compare price there with crowded Holland.
By Fabr | 26 July 2012 10:43 PMFrom one of the bank auctions.
By The visitor | 26 July 2012 10:44 PMWhere does it come from the notion that a house should cost the same all over the world? Surely the price depends on a number of factors including availability, price of the land etc. A house in Amsterdam would not cost the same than in a small village. Perhaps I did not understand the comment?
By laura | 26 July 2012 11:12 PM@dork, Are you implying real estate prices in NL are inflated? Please elaborate. I do not live in NL but have similar opinion about market where I live.
By Fons | 27 July 2012 7:22 AMI fgot to mention the house I would buy should be asbestos free too!
God, you are not helping it all Dutchnews!
By dork | 27 July 2012 8:02 AMThe housing market here is everything but transparent. It is almost impossible to buy your own plot and build yourself. You have to buy low quality projects which are over priced and over concentrated, whereas there is plenty of space in the country.
By Dave | 27 July 2012 8:18 AMI would favor that the tax relieve on every mortgage completely disappears from one day to the other to finally see the real value of houses (-50 % at least).
I agree with Dork.
By ker | 27 July 2012 8:39 AMI would be also buying with those conditions.
It makes me sick to think of what we spent on a new build 5 years ago plus the 60,00 or more Euro spent on flooring, plastering, painting, decorating, garden, etc. Now it
By M | 27 July 2012 9:23 AMlooks like we won't ever break even if we sell. So much for property investment in The Netherlands! Without mortgage tax relief and much stricter loan guidelines from banks we may never be able to sell our house...and I want out of this country!!!
@ M : Just rent your house here and go to your dream place to rent something for the same amount. In twenty years, a new good economic cycle will come back and you will be able to sell with no loss or gain...
By Dave | 27 July 2012 11:11 AMPopulation density is a typical Dutch smoeje when they realize people elsewhere live in much better quality houses at much lower prices.
A LOT OF areas in the US, Canada, and Germany have equal population density (if not more) and yet offer much better quality houses at about 300-350 grand (USD).
And yes, I was also literally pushed and pressed to buy a typical concrete box in the NL several years ago when I arrived by the same people who always put forward the population density smoejes.
Let's not forget for the same job most knowledge migrants do here, they earn a lot more in the US/Canada/Germany and they pay far less tax (ever compared road tax between Germany/NL?)
By dork | 27 July 2012 11:13 AMI have been absent for some time, but now I remember why I used to love this web site. Thank you, I'll try and check back more frequently. How frequently you update your website?
By Cartoon Snapbacks | 27 July 2012 10:56 PMI've recently started a blog, the information you provide on this web site has helped me greatly. Thanks for all of your time & work.
By Houston Rockets Snapback | 28 July 2012 2:44 PMIt's a good post.
By rem blog | 30 July 2012 12:36 PMDork: have you ever compared ROADS (quality) between Germany and NL??? I rather pay a bit higher taxes, than spending my life on those tragic roads, as it is in Germany: all over the place!!! My life is too short to sit in roadworks infested traffic jams, as the germans are forced to... but keep a few more Eurs in their pocket.. Only that they never get home to spend it... or are so nacked by the time they do, they have no energy left in them to do so... So: NL roads/infrastructure any time! Certainly NOT German ones, please! (Just came back from that country, don't even get me started on that one...)
By KP | 30 July 2012 5:54 PM> ???? ..ha ha ha
Dork, you don't even have a clue.
In Vancouver (CANADA), one can NOT buy a house for less than 1 million dollars. I have lived here for 25 years and, unless I win the lottery, I will NEVER own a house in Vancouver!!!!
At least you have social housing in the Netherlands!!
By Bob Loblaw | 31 July 2012 5:27 AM@Dork - you really don't know what you are talking about do you? A Lot of areas in the US, Canada etc. etc.? Go find a better quality semi or detached house in Toronto for 300 grand, show me. A one bedroom one bathroom apartment (condo) in Toronto costs between 300 and 350 grand.
A house in Toronto (equal population density) you are looking at 750,000 minimum, more likely north of 1Million Canadian dollars (which are on par with US dollars)
Get your story straight dude, your spreading completely false information.
By Jsmith | 31 July 2012 12:45 PM@KP: German roads are so good people have actually been driving much faster than NL long before the NL new (collapsed) government allows 140KM speeds.Road tax is not "a bit" but a lot higher in NL,Germany doesn't have BPM either.The same car brand and model has a better quality and lower price in Germany than NL with equal options.
By dork | 1 August 2012 7:05 PM@bob loblaw: I am not a very fan of Vancouver as I don't like too much rain. But if I could pay $1M I would gladly do as I was 100% sure the quality I would get was much better than a 800K Euro place in the NL check below
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12247862&PidKey=-583676491
By dork | 1 August 2012 7:06 PMhttp://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12084160&PidKey=1061385479
@jsmith: False or true foreigners who can afford to buy a house out of pocket are far better off investing their hard earned money in the US/Canada than NL,check below
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12102690&PidKey=-1825806026
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11967939&PidKey=-1955074504
Finally to the NVM cheerleaders out there: you are so desperate you hope foreigners would actually buy your overpriced,tiny,low quality,non-energy-labeled, concrete boxes? Just say No.
NL need to realize stonetop kitchens are not a luxury and learn not to be green freak
By dork | 1 August 2012 7:07 PM