Opinion

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A lesson in geopolitics

Friday 26 February 2010

Former chancellor Helmut Schmidt’s take on the situation in Afghanistan makes a refreshing change from the endless bickering in this country, writes Paul Brill in the Volkskrant.

The Dutch mission in Afghanistan: was enough really enough? Should the Christian Democrats have known Labour couldn’t possibly have gone ahead with another extension of our military presence in Afghanistan, no matter how small? Could an agreement have been reached if The Hague had prepared Nato’s request more thoroughly?

Grist

These questions are grist to the election mill at a time when most people are falling asleep over local issues. The sound of the big guns having a go at each other makes for a livelier spectacle than a discussion on city planning in Almelo-Noord. And of course, there is the matter of who stepped on whose toes and when during the danse macabre that was the government’s final meeting on Afghanistan.

Provinces

But let’s not kid ourselves that the decision to leave has plucked us from the provincial boards and put us onto the world stage. Its ramifications do not seem to go beyond the immediate vicinity of the Binnenhof.

It was left to an experienced hand in politics to put things in a broader perspective. In a speech to the board of his SPD party Helmut Schmidt gave his views on the German presence in Afghanistan. (see the Die Zeit website) It wasn’t so much a speech as a series of observations but all in all it showed a clear understanding of the situation in Afghanistan, including its historical background and, first and foremost, the geopolitical context of the Nato presence.

Victory

Schmidt does not think a military victory is on the cards. The Taliban have too much room to manoeuvre for that to happen. The best Nato can hope for are partial victories. But is that reason enough for Germany to push for a withdrawal of its 4000 troops?

‘The German interest is best served by preventing our country from becoming isolated, either in Nato or the EU’, Schmidt argued. A pull-out would have to be synchronized with an American withdrawal in order not to endanger the all-important functioning of the alliance: ‘A Dutch and Canadian withdrawal would do nothing to change this.’

Distance

Schmidt emphatically links the German interest with geopolitics. A military presence remains necessary in order to stop Afghanistan from becoming as instable as atomic power Pakistan. Although Russia and China are keeping their distance both countries are very wary of Islamic and jihadist influences which would come to the fore if the Taliban were to regain control over Kabul. ‘A premature pull-out of troops would be disastrous, not only for Afghanistan but for a large part of Central Asia.’

Is Schmidt completely right? Perhaps not. And in Germany opinions are divided about his definition of the word ‘interest’. But his broad analysis, historical awareness and strategic probity form a refreshing change from the narrow minded Dutch bickering over ‘a deal is a deal’

Paul Brill is a journalist with the Volkskrant. This is an unofficial translation.

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