Wednesday 06 July 2022

Greece scenarios not made public, and don’t mention Greece

A continuing European debt crisis will lead to a 40% drop in Dutch share prices and a 20% fall in house prices, according to new finance ministry calculations, the Telegraaf reports.

The figures are contained in a confidential briefing for MPs about the likely effect on the Netherlands of three different forms of financial crisis: a general financial crisis, a continuing European debt crisis and a global crisis.
MPs had called on finance minister Jan Kees de Jager to look at the options in the wake of increasing concern about the effect of an eventual Greek bankrutpcy on the Dutch economy.
The briefing does not mention Greece by name, according to media reports. In June, De Jager said if Greece was allowed to go bankrupt, it would cost the Netherlands several tens of billions of euros, because confidence in Portugal, Ireland and Spain would also be hit.
National debt
According to the Financieele Dagblad, the figures show that should there be another credit crisis like that of 2008, the Dutch national debt will rise by 25% over the next five years. Unemployment will rise 2%.
A European debt crisis will see the euro fall 20% in value, while the national debt will go up 18%. Unemployment will rise 2%.
The third scenario, a global economic crisis, will cause most damage, with the national debt rising 30%. The economy will shrink by 8%, the calculations show.
In his covering letter the minister says the figures are not being made public because they are very rough estimates with a high degree of uncertainty.

Thank you for donating to

The team would like to thank all the generous readers who have made a donation in recent weeks. Your financial support has helped us to expand our coverage of the coronavirus crisis into the evenings and weekends and make sure you are kept up to date with the latest developments. has been free for 14 years, but without the financial backing of our readers, we would not be able to provide you with fair and accurate news and features about all things Dutch. Your contributions make this possible.

If you have not yet made a donation, but would like to, you can do so via Ideal, credit card or Paypal.