The weekly Maurice de Hond opinion poll puts the Socialist Party ahead in the popularity stakes, saying the party would capture 32 out of 150 seats if there was a general election tomorrow.
That would put the SP ahead of the ruling VVD, which De Hond says would win 30 seats, one less than it currently controls in parliament.
It is the first time the SP has ever topped the poll. The party has been climbing steadily in the polls since general election when it won 15 seats.
Geert Wilder’s anti-Islam PVV lost another seat in the poll and is now on 21, three fewer than its current parliamentary total and seven below its peak.
De Hond puts the Christian Democrats on 12 and Labour on 17 – the poll does not reflect both parties’ conferences this weekend.
The new shift in voting patterns means the coalition – the VVD and CDA with the support of the PVV – would only control 62 seats, down 14 on its June 2010 general election result.