Support for the two coalition parties is likely to go down in next month’s local elections, according to an analysis of the four biggest opinion polls by Nos television.

If there were a general election tomorrow, support for the right-wing Liberal VVD would plunge from 27% to 15% – or 23 seats in the 150 seat parliament.

At the same time, the coalition Labour party partner would have 10% support, less than half its vote in the 2012 general election.

The big winner is the anti-immigration PVV. The poll of polls shows support for Geert Wilders’ party would rise from 10% in 2012 to 18% now – or 27 seats in parliament.

The analysis puts the Socialists in third place with 22 seats and the D66 Liberals on 20.

Local elections

However, the polls cannot be translated fully to the local elections on March 19 because the PVV is only taking part in The Hague and Almere. Some of its support is likely to go to local parties, who play a prominent part in local government.

In addition, turnout is much lower in the local than the national elections, Nos television points out.

The individual polls which make up the poll of polls show wide variations. For example, the Politieke Barometer puts the VVD on 18% support but the Maurice de Hond poll gives the party just under 13%.